As the world watches the in Gaza and Israel, a destabilizing conflict has broken out in the Democratic Republic of Congo, with far reaching consequences but only a fraction of the viewership.
Rebels from the M23 militia have effectively captured the city of Goma, a city with a crucial tactical location — it borders Rwanda and its airport is responsible for bringing in aid and exporting a fair amount of natural resources — and a population of over a million people.
The capture of such a huge city could easily draw the entire region into chaos. While the DRC has dealt with rebels consistently in its recent history, threats to its sovereignty in the past decade have never been this serious.
Rwanda and Uganda, two of Africa's most politically important countries and key U.S. allies in the region, have been accused of backing the rebels and impeding on the sovereignty of the DRC, a country almost as large as all of Western Europe. A war between these states would seriously impede the regional economy, as Goma and the surrounding areas are abundant in natural resources.
Speculation has already surfaced that Rwanda and Uganda will try to take over the conflict area themselves. Uganda is supposed to act as the impartial mediator for the conflict in upcoming negotiations.
What's happening on the ground
According to reporters on the ground, the militia has seized the airport, "sweeping past" the DRC military and UN peacekeeping forces on the ground. M23 spokesperson Colonel Vianney Kazarama stated that "despite the attack helicopters, and the heavy weapons, of the FARDC [the Congolese army] let the town fall into our hands."
Reports out of Goma are hazy. The Telegraph is reporting that looting has started, while the Guardian adds that the police surrendered there weapons and a "small group" of residents have welcomed them. Many residents have begun to flee the city and nearby refugee camps.
Despite the murkiness surrounding many of the details, it is becoming clear that the army did nothing to stop their invasion.
Failed Integration
The M23 movement traces its roots to a group of Tutsi rebels which were active prior to 2009 and located in the Eastern part of the DRC. On March 23, 2009 (where M23 derives its name), the rebels signed a peace accord with the government that would form a political party to represent their interests — the National Congress for the Defence of the People (CNDP) — and integrate rebel soldiers into the Congolese army.
In 2012, their grievances gave way to mutiny; the M23 group was formed on April 4, 2012, began its actions and allegedly committing war crimes, according to Human Rights Watch. UN forces were called into action last July
Tensions have risen significantly since, but reached a tipping point last month when leaked UN documents accused General James Kabarebe, the Rwandan defence minister, of being the de facto leader of M23. Uganda was also implicated, allegedly backing M23 as well.
Tutsis, Coups and Cell Phones
The various social, economic, and military components of the conflict have a myriad of consequences for the parties involved.
As noted previously, the M23 is mostly made up of Tutsis — the ethnic minority that was almost extinguished in the 1994 genocide in Rwanda. Rwandan President Paul Kagame is also a Tutsi.
After the Rwandan genocide, over 2 million Hutus fled across the porous border between Rwanda and the DRC, fearing reprisals from the new Tutsi-led government. Since the late 90s, the Rwandan government — which has become a key military power in the region despite its size — has at times officially backed Tutsi militias or been accused of backing rebel Tutsis.
Social factors and ethnic strife aside, both Rwanda and Uganda have an interest in protecting their respective borders. But its clear to all sides that economics is a critical factor. The eastern part of the DRC, where M23 has been active, is rich in mineral wealth. Trade and influence in the region could lead yield serious economic gains.
"We're very tired, we're going to greet our friends now."
While rebel forces have claimed that they will fight until the government falls, the Telegraph notes "it will be impossible for the M23, whose total strength is thought to number no more than 2,500 soldiers, to hold Goma." "We're very tired, we're going to greet our friends now." Colonel Kazarama added on Monday.
The rhetoric is just as heated. Congolese government spokesman Lambert Mende told reporters "Goma is in the process of being occupied by Rwanda," a claim that could not be independently verified. Reuters reports that Rwanda has accused the Congolese military of shelling its borders, although it has not called for a military response.
Negotiations are set to begin soon in Uganda, but M23 will not be invited. Their presence has been deemed "unnecessary,"as the Congolese government refuses to negotiate with the group.
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