It was August when I put up a post saying I wanted to attend this week's Persian Gulf mine clearing exercise.
After reporting Iran's incessant threats to mine the Strait of Hormuz and choke the global oil supply, I wanted some reality. I wanted to see what's really happening in the most important channel in the world.
I won't lie, I expected answers. Some concrete, hang-your-hat-on opinions and experience put out by U.S. Naval troops that would give face to the threat.
I thought the words out of Iran would have a different meaning 50 miles offshore of the Islamic Republic, and would carry greater weight to the troops sailing through the Strait on a regular basis.
To that end, I was disappointed. I mean, I should have known better. Known that the lower ranks are so busy performing the mission that they have little time to consider anything else. And the upper ranks aren't going to express anything outside policy: "The Iranian Navy has been nothing but professional and courteous," was the inescapable line last week.
When I asked why the enlisted troops I spoke to had little awareness of what was happening in the Gulf, one Navy LT Commander told me, "We need them to be occupied every second of every day." He was referring to keeping sailors from dwelling on home and family and preserving morale, but the effect applies to current events, as well.
Most sailors had little idea of Iran's bluster. And the few I talked to who were aware, just shrugged and laughed. "Doesn't matter much," they said. "The mission is the mission." In the end, it's still hot and they still get paid.
Fear is something that may flicker through the cockpit of an F-18 desperate to find its mark on a carrier deck at night, or appear full blown for an instant during one of the disfiguring accidents that plague carrier flight crew; but fear rarely settles in for the night, and never lingers long enough to become accustomed to its presence.
Which is all mildly clever and true, but still fails to explain how complex marine mines are, and how daunting the task of neutralizing them really is. With about a dozen variations, knowing a mine is laid remains only a fraction of the fight. Magnetic, resonant, triggered … there are mines for every occasion.
In Libya, standard mines were laid about the harbors, but modified mines were placed in Zodiacs and remotely directed at NATO vessels. If that old saying about Eskimos having 100 words for snow were true, it could be applied to mines.
Several Admirals we spoke with pointed out how it costs as little as $1,000 to $1,500 to create a marine mine that could cause billions of dollars in damage. It's an almost romantic idea; biblical in its David-like ambition, but perhaps unlikely.
What officials refer to when they mention this figure and contraption is an animal bladder filled with fuel, placed near the surface of the sea. While not only being easy to identify but difficult to control and ignite, surface mines lack a formidable favor of physics.
The deeper a mine, the greater the pressure imposed upon it by the water above, which results in a more powerful explosion when it detonates.
Just one of many slippery perceptions out here in the Gulf about a device that invites no easy answers.
If Iran does manage to dump a string of mines into the Strait without the U.S. stopping them, it will take a long, long time to conclude an acceptable risk of passage.
And as one Navy LT,—an oceanographer—told me, that is what it will come down to: acceptable risk. I pressed him, "So what? Eighty percent, 70, 65 percent secure? What's the number that sends commercial traffic back through the strait? Is it even a number?"
"I don't know," he admitted. "But, yes, it is a number."
Acceptable risk. If you're crewing a vessel through the Strait, you may want to check your company's insurance policy.
As simple as it sounds, the only way to know all the mines are gone is to see that nothing explodes. If one gets missed, chances are someone will find it, but that won't keep the strait from serving global vessels and ensuring tankers make their way to the marketplace.
But as picturesque as the strait may seem, it could just as easily become ground zero for the planet's next big global conflict.
Every once in a while there comes a spot on the planet able to wreak all sorts of havoc on the world's plans
Right now it's the 21-mile-wide Strait of Hormuz, which accommodates a third of the world's oil and faces constant threat from Iran's marine mines
If this were a novel, we'd say here that 21 miles are all that stands between peaceful commerce and untold havoc
See the rest of the story at Business Insider
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